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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University1.88+6.89vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.92+2.48vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.05+4.30vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.50+1.90vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.37+4.77vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.29+0.55vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.09+0.20vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida1.27+2.13vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-3.64vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.13-2.80vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-2.14vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.83-3.59vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.32-2.88vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College1.55-4.90vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.70-3.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.89Tulane University1.880.1%1st Place
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4.48Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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7.3Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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5.9Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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9.77Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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6.55Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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7.2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.090.1%1st Place
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10.13University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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5.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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7.2Harvard University2.130.1%1st Place
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8.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.0%1st Place
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8.41University of Rhode Island1.830.0%1st Place
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10.12University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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9.1Bowdoin College1.550.0%1st Place
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11.71Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Keenan | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% |
| Emma Cowles | 17.6% | 15.9% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| James Paul | 10.0% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 11.1% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Matthew Elliott | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Andreas Keswater | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 13.8% | 13.5% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 12.1% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Eric Hansen | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Thomas Green | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% |
| Jonathan Riley | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 12.9% |
| Jonathan Chance | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 7.0% |
| Andrew Powers | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 15.2% | 33.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.