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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.50+4.81vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.29+4.44vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.09+4.22vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.13+3.15vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.92-0.33vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.05+1.41vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+1.78vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-2.53vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.96+2.15vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College1.55-0.72vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.27-0.84vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.32-1.71vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.37-2.94vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.83-5.83vs Predicted
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15Tulane University1.88-7.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.81Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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6.44Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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7.22Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.090.1%1st Place
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7.15Harvard University2.130.1%1st Place
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4.67Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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7.41Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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8.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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5.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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11.15Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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9.28Bowdoin College1.550.0%1st Place
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10.16University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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10.29University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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10.06Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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8.17University of Rhode Island1.830.1%1st Place
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7.95Tulane University1.880.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Paul | 11.0% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 8.4% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Elliott | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Eric Hansen | 7.8% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| Emma Cowles | 16.4% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Thomas Green | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.6% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 12.4% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 23.5% |
| Jonathan Chance | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.3% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 16.5% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 14.5% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 13.9% |
| Jonathan Riley | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.4% |
| William Keenan | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.