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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+4.40vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.13+4.94vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.05+4.40vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida1.27+6.12vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.29+1.69vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.09+1.30vs Predicted
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7Tulane University1.88+0.94vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+0.87vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.50-3.17vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.83-1.68vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.92-6.27vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.96-0.62vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College1.55-3.57vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.37-4.22vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.32-5.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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6.94Harvard University2.130.1%1st Place
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7.4Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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10.12University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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6.69Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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7.3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.090.1%1st Place
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7.94Tulane University1.880.1%1st Place
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8.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.0%1st Place
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5.83Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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8.32University of Rhode Island1.830.0%1st Place
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4.73Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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11.38Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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9.43Bowdoin College1.550.0%1st Place
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9.78Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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9.86University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 12.3% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Eric Hansen | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| John Eastman | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 15.8% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Matthew Elliott | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| William Keenan | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 3.2% |
| Thomas Green | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% |
| James Paul | 9.6% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Jonathan Riley | 4.8% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 4.6% |
| Emma Cowles | 16.8% | 16.3% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 15.0% | 26.9% |
| Jonathan Chance | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 12.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 13.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.