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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.48+5.72vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+8.22vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.64vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.75+2.78vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida0.90+7.92vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.78+2.57vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.20+1.42vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.04+1.42vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California1.40+1.63vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.94+2.24vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.30+0.17vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy2.05-2.93vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University-1.38-2.41vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.61-7.64vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii1.56-4.01vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-8.15vs Predicted
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17University of Miami2.32-8.28vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.27-5.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.72Harvard University2.489.3%1st Place
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10.22University of California at Santa Barbara1.783.5%1st Place
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7.64U. S. Naval Academy2.608.1%1st Place
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6.78Georgetown University2.759.4%1st Place
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12.92University of South Florida0.901.8%1st Place
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8.57University of Rhode Island2.786.5%1st Place
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8.42Boston College2.206.5%1st Place
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9.42Tulane University2.044.5%1st Place
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10.63University of Southern California1.403.5%1st Place
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12.24Fordham University1.943.0%1st Place
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11.17Webb Institute1.303.8%1st Place
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9.07U. S. Military Academy2.056.1%1st Place
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10.59Jacksonville University-1.384.0%1st Place
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6.36Stanford University2.6110.1%1st Place
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10.99University of Hawaii1.564.0%1st Place
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7.85Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.8%1st Place
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8.72University of Miami2.326.5%1st Place
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12.71Northwestern University1.272.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Callahan | 9.3% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 20.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| Luke Harris | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 14.6% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 8.6% |
| James Paul | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Emily Allen | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Trey Summers | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Jake Weinstein | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 18.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.