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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.81+3.80vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.09+2.45vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin1.75+1.96vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.11+0.11vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+0.20vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-1.61vs Predicted
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7Princeton University2.35-3.33vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45-2.47vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan0.05-1.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.8Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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4.45University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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4.96University of Wisconsin1.750.1%1st Place
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4.11Washington College2.110.2%1st Place
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5.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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4.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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3.67Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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5.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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7.89University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Ehnot | 10.9% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 3.8% |
| Samuel Gavula | 10.9% | 13.5% | 15.1% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 3.7% |
| Reed Weston | 10.3% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 4.4% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 15.3% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 2.0% |
| Lars Osell | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 15.3% | 8.9% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 13.8% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 7.2% | 2.3% |
| Connor Mraz | 18.6% | 18.5% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Thomas Walker | 9.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 18.3% | 10.1% |
| Samuel Stephens | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 13.7% | 63.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.