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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+9.47vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.78+6.74vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.61+3.51vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University-1.38+6.51vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.94+6.94vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.20+2.64vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.04+2.25vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.48-1.19vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-1.03vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.75-3.24vs Predicted
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11U. S. Military Academy2.05-2.24vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.32-3.17vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California1.40-2.58vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.30-2.93vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.60-7.38vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida0.90-3.17vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.27-4.11vs Predicted
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18University of Hawaii1.56-7.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.47University of California at Santa Barbara1.783.9%1st Place
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8.74University of Rhode Island2.786.6%1st Place
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6.51Stanford University2.6110.0%1st Place
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10.51Jacksonville University-1.383.5%1st Place
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11.94Fordham University1.942.8%1st Place
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8.64Boston College2.205.8%1st Place
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9.25Tulane University2.045.8%1st Place
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6.81Harvard University2.4810.2%1st Place
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7.97Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.2%1st Place
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6.76Georgetown University2.759.9%1st Place
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8.76U. S. Military Academy2.056.2%1st Place
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8.83University of Miami2.325.6%1st Place
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10.42University of Southern California1.403.6%1st Place
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11.07Webb Institute1.303.0%1st Place
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7.62U. S. Naval Academy2.607.7%1st Place
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12.83University of South Florida0.902.5%1st Place
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12.89Northwestern University1.272.1%1st Place
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10.99University of Hawaii1.563.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Emily Allen | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.3% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 12.9% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| James Paul | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% |
| Luke Harris | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 19.4% |
| Jake Weinstein | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 20.9% |
| Trey Summers | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.