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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.81+3.82vs Predicted
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2Princeton University2.35+1.92vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin1.75+1.98vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.11+0.13vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+0.19vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.13-1.89vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-2.57vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45-2.47vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan0.05-1.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.82Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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3.92Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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4.98University of Wisconsin1.750.1%1st Place
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4.13Washington College2.110.2%1st Place
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5.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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4.11University of Pennsylvania2.130.2%1st Place
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4.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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5.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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7.89University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Ehnot | 11.4% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 4.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 14.3% | 18.7% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 1.6% |
| Reed Weston | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 4.8% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 15.5% | 14.3% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 2.0% |
| Lars Osell | 8.9% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 15.6% | 8.8% |
| Cole Woodworth | 15.8% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 16.1% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 5.9% | 1.4% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 13.2% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 2.8% |
| Thomas Walker | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 18.0% | 10.3% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 13.0% | 64.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.