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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+3.65vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+3.69vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.86+0.03vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.09+0.35vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.11-0.68vs Predicted
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6Princeton University2.35-2.11vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin1.75-1.83vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45-2.30vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan-0.22-0.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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5.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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3.03Cornell University2.860.3%1st Place
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4.35University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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4.32Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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3.89Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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5.17University of Wisconsin1.750.1%1st Place
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5.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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8.19University of Michigan-0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Sessions | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 2.1% |
| Lars Osell | 5.6% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 16.8% | 18.9% | 8.0% |
| Hayden Earl | 26.6% | 20.8% | 17.1% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Gavula | 12.0% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 15.6% | 10.7% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 1.9% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 12.6% | 15.5% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 2.4% |
| Connor Mraz | 15.8% | 16.5% | 15.0% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 0.6% |
| Reed Weston | 7.8% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 16.8% | 14.2% | 4.0% |
| Thomas Walker | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 15.0% | 21.7% | 9.0% |
| Jack Hammett | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 11.7% | 71.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.