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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.90+5.60vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.75+5.01vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+7.75vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.94+8.34vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.88vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.61+0.61vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+0.96vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.40+1.44vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.05-3.00vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.04-0.53vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.78-1.98vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.43-0.50vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.32-4.09vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California1.40-3.27vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University2.10-5.43vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii1.56-4.76vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida0.90-4.07vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.27-4.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.6Dartmouth College2.9010.2%1st Place
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7.01Georgetown University2.7510.0%1st Place
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10.75University of California at Santa Barbara1.783.2%1st Place
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12.34Fordham University1.942.1%1st Place
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7.88U. S. Naval Academy2.607.1%1st Place
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6.61Stanford University2.6110.4%1st Place
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7.96Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.8%1st Place
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9.44Boston College2.404.7%1st Place
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6.0Harvard University3.0512.2%1st Place
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9.47Tulane University2.044.3%1st Place
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9.02University of Rhode Island2.785.6%1st Place
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11.5Webb Institute1.432.8%1st Place
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8.91University of Miami2.325.8%1st Place
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10.73University of Southern California1.403.9%1st Place
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9.57Jacksonville University2.104.7%1st Place
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11.24University of Hawaii1.563.2%1st Place
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12.93University of South Florida0.901.8%1st Place
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13.06Northwestern University1.271.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bragg | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 13.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% |
| Luke Harris | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% |
| Trey Summers | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 20.0% |
| Jake Weinstein | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 21.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.