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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+7.07vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.90+4.61vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+6.18vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.43+7.67vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.90vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.75+0.77vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University2.10+2.77vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.40+2.83vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.40+0.56vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.94+2.68vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-0.42vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.05-5.86vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.32-3.78vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida0.90-1.08vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.28-6.87vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University1.27-2.87vs Predicted
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17Stanford University2.61-10.17vs Predicted
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18University of Hawaii1.56-7.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.07Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.2%1st Place
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6.61Dartmouth College2.909.9%1st Place
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9.18University of Rhode Island2.785.3%1st Place
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11.67Webb Institute1.432.9%1st Place
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7.9U. S. Naval Academy2.608.7%1st Place
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6.77Georgetown University2.7511.2%1st Place
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9.77Jacksonville University2.104.0%1st Place
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10.83University of Southern California1.403.7%1st Place
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9.56Boston College2.404.8%1st Place
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12.68Fordham University1.941.9%1st Place
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10.58University of California at Santa Barbara1.783.1%1st Place
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6.14Harvard University3.0511.1%1st Place
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9.22University of Miami2.324.8%1st Place
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12.92University of South Florida0.902.4%1st Place
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8.13Tulane University2.286.7%1st Place
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13.13Northwestern University1.271.6%1st Place
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6.83Stanford University2.618.6%1st Place
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11.0University of Hawaii1.563.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bruce | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.2% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% |
| Luke Harris | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 16.8% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 14.9% | 17.6% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Jake Weinstein | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 20.9% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Trey Summers | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.