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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hamilton College0.40+2.07vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.21+1.33vs Predicted
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3Syracuse University-0.67+1.63vs Predicted
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4U. S. Military Academy-2.01+2.26vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.77-3.33vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-1.56vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-2.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.07Hamilton College0.400.2%1st Place
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3.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.210.1%1st Place
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4.63Syracuse University-0.670.1%1st Place
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6.26U. S. Military Academy-2.010.0%1st Place
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1.67Webb Institute1.770.6%1st Place
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4.44SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.1%1st Place
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4.6SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Stone | 16.4% | 24.0% | 22.2% | 19.1% | 11.3% | 6.2% | 0.8% |
| Charlie Lawrence | 11.1% | 20.7% | 24.9% | 21.2% | 13.3% | 6.9% | 1.9% |
| Maren Behnke | 5.5% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 18.1% | 21.0% | 24.9% | 11.5% |
| Gil Hankinson | 0.5% | 1.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 65.7% |
| Calvin Schmid | 55.9% | 27.7% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Magill | 5.2% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 18.5% | 21.9% | 22.2% | 8.8% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 5.4% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 14.7% | 22.2% | 25.3% | 11.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.