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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+8.38vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+7.66vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.21vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.46vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.68+2.32vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.28+2.31vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.82+2.12vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+2.03vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.78-0.53vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.18-4.94vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.38-2.57vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College1.17-0.11vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.00+0.52vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.73-4.77vs Predicted
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15Florida State University1.69-4.46vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.59-2.40vs Predicted
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17Brown University2.73-10.28vs Predicted
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180.68-3.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.38University of Pennsylvania1.774.5%1st Place
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9.66Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.5%1st Place
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7.21U. S. Naval Academy2.608.5%1st Place
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8.46St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.1%1st Place
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7.32Roger Williams University2.688.8%1st Place
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8.31Tulane University2.285.4%1st Place
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9.12George Washington University1.825.3%1st Place
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10.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.2%1st Place
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8.47University of Rhode Island2.785.8%1st Place
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5.06Harvard University3.1815.2%1st Place
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8.43Cornell University2.386.1%1st Place
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11.89Eckerd College1.172.1%1st Place
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13.52Connecticut College1.001.9%1st Place
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9.23Webb Institute1.735.3%1st Place
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10.54Florida State University1.693.3%1st Place
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13.6Northeastern University1.591.8%1st Place
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6.72Brown University2.739.6%1st Place
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14.070.681.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 15.2% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 9.0% |
| William Hurd | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 15.7% | 21.2% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| Peter Foley | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 17.0% | 21.7% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack Homa | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 17.3% | 27.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.