← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+9.38vs Predicted
-
2Boston College2.09+6.77vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Military Academy2.05+6.15vs Predicted
-
4Georgetown University2.40+3.76vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.79vs Predicted
-
6Stanford University2.61+0.69vs Predicted
-
7Harvard University3.05-1.06vs Predicted
-
8University of Miami2.32+0.96vs Predicted
-
9Fordham University1.94+3.32vs Predicted
-
10University of Rhode Island2.78-1.17vs Predicted
-
11Northwestern University1.27+2.02vs Predicted
-
12Tulane University2.28-4.02vs Predicted
-
13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-5.04vs Predicted
-
14University of Hawaii1.56-2.99vs Predicted
-
15Jacksonville University2.10-5.66vs Predicted
-
16University of Southern California1.40-5.20vs Predicted
-
17University of South Florida0.90-4.13vs Predicted
-
18Webb Institute1.43-6.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
10.38University of California at Santa Barbara1.783.4%1st Place
-
8.77Boston College2.096.6%1st Place
-
9.15U. S. Military Academy2.055.2%1st Place
-
7.76Georgetown University2.407.5%1st Place
-
7.79U. S. Naval Academy2.608.0%1st Place
-
6.69Stanford University2.619.9%1st Place
-
5.94Harvard University3.0511.8%1st Place
-
8.96University of Miami2.325.9%1st Place
-
12.32Fordham University1.942.8%1st Place
-
8.83University of Rhode Island2.785.7%1st Place
-
13.02Northwestern University1.272.0%1st Place
-
7.98Tulane University2.286.6%1st Place
-
7.96Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.2%1st Place
-
11.01University of Hawaii1.563.3%1st Place
-
9.34Jacksonville University2.105.5%1st Place
-
10.8University of Southern California1.403.5%1st Place
-
12.87University of South Florida0.902.1%1st Place
-
11.43Webb Institute1.433.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| James Paul | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.8% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 15.3% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| Jake Weinstein | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 19.3% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Trey Summers | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% |
| Owen Bannasch | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Luke Harris | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 19.7% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.