Race 1A

washington-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

45.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Jedidiah Bechtel 9.8% 13.1% 14.1% 15.9% 15.6% 12.0% 8.7% 7.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.5%
Jack Welburn 38.3% 24.6% 16.1% 10.1% 6.5% 3.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Ziman 7.4% 10.0% 13.1% 11.9% 14.6% 13.4% 12.9% 7.7% 6.2% 2.3% 0.5%
Iain Shand 3.5% 3.9% 5.8% 7.1% 7.0% 11.1% 15.2% 14.2% 14.5% 11.1% 6.6%
Jonathan Weed 18.9% 22.4% 18.5% 13.8% 12.0% 7.1% 4.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Jonathan Kelly 3.0% 3.9% 5.4% 6.8% 7.8% 9.8% 11.4% 13.6% 16.3% 12.6% 9.4%
Pearce Bragaw 1.5% 2.1% 3.0% 2.4% 2.7% 4.5% 6.9% 9.1% 13.4% 18.4% 36.0%
Asher Green 8.5% 10.1% 11.5% 15.2% 13.7% 13.3% 10.7% 8.3% 5.6% 2.7% 0.4%
Can Dilikoglu 5.5% 5.1% 6.3% 8.4% 9.6% 12.8% 13.9% 12.9% 12.6% 8.4% 4.5%
Bryan Lawrence 1.8% 2.6% 3.6% 4.2% 6.3% 6.4% 8.0% 12.4% 14.4% 21.0% 19.3%
Patrick Cashin 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% 4.2% 4.2% 6.6% 7.1% 12.0% 14.2% 22.4% 22.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.