Race 2A

washington-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

36.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Jonathan Kelly 2.4% 3.2% 4.7% 5.1% 9.0% 9.3% 14.3% 14.0% 17.1% 13.0% 7.9%
Jedidiah Bechtel 11.6% 13.2% 14.8% 14.8% 14.7% 10.7% 10.8% 5.8% 2.7% 0.6% 0.3%
Iain Shand 3.7% 3.8% 6.5% 6.3% 8.7% 11.5% 12.2% 13.8% 15.2% 11.4% 6.9%
Jack Welburn 34.5% 27.0% 16.8% 10.9% 5.9% 3.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Ziman 10.1% 11.1% 11.7% 13.7% 13.3% 12.5% 11.2% 8.8% 4.5% 2.4% 0.7%
Jonathan Weed 19.3% 21.0% 18.3% 14.6% 10.5% 6.5% 6.2% 2.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Can Dilikoglu 5.2% 6.0% 6.8% 9.4% 10.6% 13.9% 11.0% 13.9% 11.1% 7.9% 4.2%
Pearce Bragaw 1.2% 1.4% 2.5% 2.6% 3.8% 4.1% 5.8% 9.5% 12.0% 21.3% 35.8%
Asher Green 8.4% 9.3% 11.3% 13.3% 14.0% 13.7% 10.5% 9.3% 6.4% 2.4% 1.4%
Patrick Cashin 1.8% 1.6% 3.1% 4.9% 4.1% 6.3% 8.1% 10.9% 13.5% 20.0% 25.7%
Bryan Lawrence 1.8% 2.4% 3.5% 4.4% 5.4% 8.3% 8.9% 11.0% 16.3% 21.0% 17.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.