Race 3A

washington-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Asher Green 6.8% 9.9% 11.1% 12.7% 14.3% 14.3% 13.5% 8.5% 6.0% 2.1% 0.8%
Jack Welburn 37.8% 24.7% 17.9% 9.6% 6.1% 2.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Weed 17.0% 20.8% 18.6% 15.9% 10.6% 9.3% 4.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Iain Shand 3.2% 4.0% 5.9% 6.2% 8.8% 9.7% 13.7% 16.1% 13.5% 12.5% 6.4%
Robert Ziman 9.7% 10.4% 13.5% 13.6% 12.3% 12.6% 12.1% 7.8% 4.8% 2.7% 0.5%
Jedidiah Bechtel 11.6% 13.0% 14.0% 14.6% 14.0% 12.1% 8.2% 6.7% 3.9% 1.5% 0.4%
Jonathan Kelly 4.6% 4.1% 4.6% 6.5% 8.9% 11.0% 11.5% 14.5% 14.2% 12.3% 7.8%
Can Dilikoglu 4.9% 5.7% 6.9% 9.2% 11.7% 12.1% 13.3% 11.5% 13.0% 8.2% 3.5%
Pearce Bragaw 1.2% 1.4% 2.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.8% 6.1% 8.7% 11.4% 19.9% 39.4%
Patrick Cashin 1.7% 2.6% 2.5% 3.6% 5.3% 5.2% 6.8% 12.1% 13.7% 21.9% 24.6%
Bryan Lawrence 1.5% 3.4% 2.7% 5.3% 5.0% 7.8% 8.8% 11.3% 18.8% 18.8% 16.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.