Race 4A

washington-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jack Welburn 35.9% 26.5% 16.0% 11.9% 5.0% 2.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Ziman 7.7% 12.6% 12.1% 12.0% 12.8% 14.6% 12.3% 7.6% 4.9% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0%
Jedidiah Bechtel 12.5% 11.2% 14.5% 13.6% 14.8% 13.4% 9.7% 6.0% 2.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0%
Jonathan Kelly 2.5% 4.0% 4.4% 5.5% 10.1% 9.8% 11.6% 13.9% 14.4% 12.8% 8.2% 2.8%
Can Dilikoglu 4.2% 5.2% 7.1% 8.9% 10.5% 11.3% 13.1% 12.2% 13.1% 8.6% 4.9% 0.9%
Jonathan Weed 19.9% 20.1% 17.3% 16.6% 11.0% 8.1% 4.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Iain Shand 4.6% 4.1% 6.3% 7.2% 11.2% 9.9% 12.1% 13.2% 14.1% 10.1% 5.4% 1.8%
Brooke Murphy-Petri 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% 2.0% 3.0% 3.7% 4.6% 9.5% 13.7% 60.2%
Asher Green 7.7% 9.1% 14.5% 14.3% 12.7% 13.7% 10.3% 9.2% 5.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Bryan Lawrence 1.8% 3.3% 3.0% 4.5% 4.2% 6.5% 7.5% 12.8% 14.9% 17.3% 17.1% 7.1%
Pearce Bragaw 1.5% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 3.2% 4.1% 6.3% 7.8% 10.5% 17.8% 27.8% 16.4%
Patrick Cashin 1.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.9% 3.4% 4.3% 8.3% 11.0% 14.5% 17.5% 21.2% 10.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.