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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.22+6.11vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.96+6.98vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.73+3.04vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.07+8.34vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.44+6.16vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.57+5.53vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.92-0.81vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.38+0.04vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.68-2.62vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05-0.80vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.38-3.97vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-2.51vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-5.61vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.09-2.35vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.71-5.66vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.07-2.80vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.41-2.30vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.20-6.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.11Tufts University2.228.1%1st Place
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8.98Cornell University1.965.2%1st Place
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6.04Brown University2.7311.6%1st Place
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12.34Northeastern University1.072.6%1st Place
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11.16George Washington University1.443.0%1st Place
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11.53Old Dominion University1.573.4%1st Place
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6.19Yale University2.9210.8%1st Place
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8.04Bowdoin College2.385.5%1st Place
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6.38Roger Williams University2.688.4%1st Place
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9.2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.055.7%1st Place
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7.03College of Charleston2.388.9%1st Place
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9.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.1%1st Place
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7.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.328.3%1st Place
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11.65North Carolina State University1.092.5%1st Place
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9.34University of Pennsylvania1.715.5%1st Place
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13.2Boston University1.072.1%1st Place
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14.7SUNY Maritime College0.410.7%1st Place
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11.23University of Wisconsin1.202.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Mueller | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Guthrie Braun | 11.6% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 11.5% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 5.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 10.8% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.4% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Charlie Anderson | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 7.4% |
| Benjamin Honig | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 1.5% |
| Porter Bell | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 14.4% | 19.4% |
| Ben Hosford | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 36.0% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 5.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.