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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+6.40vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.92+4.04vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.73+2.95vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.96+4.95vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.68+1.48vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05+3.18vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.38-0.16vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.07+4.43vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.71+0.37vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-0.55vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College0.41+3.51vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.38-4.09vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.09-1.46vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.20-2.63vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.57-3.27vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.22-8.71vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.44-5.79vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.07-4.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.328.8%1st Place
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6.04Yale University2.9210.7%1st Place
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5.95Brown University2.7312.2%1st Place
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8.95Cornell University1.965.3%1st Place
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6.48Roger Williams University2.689.5%1st Place
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9.18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.054.9%1st Place
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6.84College of Charleston2.388.7%1st Place
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12.43Northeastern University1.072.1%1st Place
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9.37University of Pennsylvania1.714.3%1st Place
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9.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.9%1st Place
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14.51SUNY Maritime College0.410.9%1st Place
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7.91Bowdoin College2.387.3%1st Place
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11.54North Carolina State University1.092.6%1st Place
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11.37University of Wisconsin1.202.9%1st Place
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11.73Old Dominion University1.572.4%1st Place
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7.29Tufts University2.228.3%1st Place
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11.21George Washington University1.443.2%1st Place
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13.37Boston University1.071.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 12.2% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Charlie Anderson | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 12.2% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| Ben Hosford | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 35.3% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 6.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.5% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 6.1% |
| Porter Bell | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 16.5% | 17.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.