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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.28+8.06vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+3.79vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.33+5.83vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.39+0.74vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.11+4.46vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.43+2.30vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.16+2.34vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston1.75+2.93vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.91-2.71vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.70-2.62vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+1.94vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.29-2.89vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12-3.65vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.88-3.78vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.02-1.29vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island1.84-5.26vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University1.86-6.27vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy0.86-3.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.06Brown University2.280.0%1st Place
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5.79Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.83Dartmouth College2.330.0%1st Place
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4.74Stanford University3.390.2%1st Place
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9.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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8.3Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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9.34Tulane University2.160.1%1st Place
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10.93College of Charleston1.750.0%1st Place
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6.29Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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7.38Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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12.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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9.11Harvard University2.290.0%1st Place
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9.35Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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10.22University of Pennsylvania1.880.0%1st Place
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13.71Tufts University1.020.0%1st Place
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10.74University of Rhode Island1.840.0%1st Place
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10.73Georgetown University1.860.0%1st Place
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14.07U. S. Naval Academy0.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaire McCarthy | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 9.5% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Gray Hemans | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 17.1% | 15.7% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emma Snead | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 2.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Caroline Benson | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| Grace Squires | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 8.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 14.9% | 16.5% |
| Marbella Marlo | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Madeleine Rice | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% |
| Samantha Jensen | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 15.3% | 23.5% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% |
| Riley Kloc | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 4.8% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 27.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.