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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+6.30vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.68+4.34vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.57+8.76vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.38+3.16vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.92+1.19vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.38+1.91vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.73-0.98vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.22-0.87vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+0.53vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.09+1.45vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.07+1.25vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05-2.81vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.07+0.53vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.96-5.06vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.71-5.46vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.44-5.10vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.20-5.73vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.41-3.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.328.2%1st Place
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6.34Roger Williams University2.6810.3%1st Place
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11.76Old Dominion University1.572.4%1st Place
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7.16College of Charleston2.388.6%1st Place
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6.19Yale University2.9211.2%1st Place
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7.91Bowdoin College2.386.5%1st Place
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6.02Brown University2.7310.6%1st Place
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7.13Tufts University2.228.8%1st Place
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9.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.1%1st Place
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11.45North Carolina State University1.093.2%1st Place
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12.25Northeastern University1.072.9%1st Place
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9.19St. Mary's College of Maryland2.054.9%1st Place
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13.53Boston University1.071.3%1st Place
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8.94Cornell University1.965.9%1st Place
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9.54University of Pennsylvania1.713.6%1st Place
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10.9George Washington University1.442.5%1st Place
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11.27University of Wisconsin1.203.2%1st Place
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14.6SUNY Maritime College0.411.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 7.9% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 11.2% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Guthrie Braun | 10.6% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 7.2% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 11.2% |
| Charlie Anderson | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Porter Bell | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 14.8% | 20.7% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Benjamin Honig | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 5.5% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 10.2% | 14.5% | 35.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.