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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24+6.81vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.93+1.36vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.64+1.07vs Predicted
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4McGill University-0.01+4.61vs Predicted
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5Tufts University0.93+1.04vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University1.16-0.54vs Predicted
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7Fairfield University-0.26+2.01vs Predicted
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8University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.30+1.26vs Predicted
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9Olin College of Engineering0.87-2.84vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.46+2.06vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.41-6.25vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University0.74-5.49vs Predicted
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13Wesleyan University-1.42-1.16vs Predicted
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14Williams College-0.60-3.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.81Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
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3.36Tufts University1.930.2%1st Place
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4.07Brown University1.640.2%1st Place
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8.61McGill University-0.010.0%1st Place
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6.04Tufts University0.930.1%1st Place
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5.46Salve Regina University1.160.1%1st Place
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9.01Fairfield University-0.260.0%1st Place
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9.26University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.300.0%1st Place
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6.16Olin College of Engineering0.870.1%1st Place
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12.06Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.460.0%1st Place
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4.75University of Rhode Island1.410.1%1st Place
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6.51Northeastern University0.740.1%1st Place
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11.84Wesleyan University-1.420.0%1st Place
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10.05Williams College-0.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Leshaw | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 1.7% |
| Clark Morris | 23.1% | 20.8% | 16.7% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grant Adam | 18.3% | 16.7% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mikhail Lavrenov | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 3.3% |
| Blake Vogel | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Pearl Lattanzi | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Andrew White | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 4.1% |
| Kate Myler | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 16.0% | 11.0% | 6.0% |
| Peter Schnell | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Kolby Seibert | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 21.5% | 39.7% |
| John Polek | 11.8% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Zachary Klusky | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Sara Beth Bouchard | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 12.6% | 23.2% | 35.2% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 17.0% | 15.8% | 9.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.