Race 11A

old-guard

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Alan Palmer 12.8% 14.0% 11.8% 10.9% 11.3% 8.9% 6.9% 7.2% 5.9% 3.7% 2.9% 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Thomas Barrows 18.7% 18.0% 12.6% 12.8% 10.2% 8.7% 5.9% 4.9% 3.1% 2.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Massimo Soriano 5.9% 6.1% 6.4% 6.5% 8.5% 6.1% 8.3% 8.8% 8.8% 8.7% 9.2% 7.6% 6.4% 2.4% 0.3%
Anne Haeger 12.7% 11.5% 10.6% 10.6% 9.4% 9.5% 9.7% 7.2% 6.7% 4.8% 4.4% 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Halsey Richartz 5.4% 5.4% 6.3% 6.3% 5.9% 7.4% 6.9% 7.2% 9.7% 8.7% 11.0% 7.4% 7.8% 4.2% 0.4%
Peter Pellegrini 6.1% 7.1% 7.6% 7.7% 8.1% 8.4% 11.1% 8.6% 9.1% 7.5% 7.5% 6.1% 3.4% 1.6% 0.1%
Gary Herring 5.0% 4.3% 4.8% 5.0% 6.4% 6.4% 6.8% 7.2% 8.8% 9.9% 8.8% 9.3% 8.5% 7.1% 1.7%
Johnny Norfleet 6.6% 6.1% 8.9% 8.1% 6.2% 7.9% 9.8% 8.4% 8.3% 8.5% 7.5% 6.3% 4.7% 2.2% 0.5%
Krysta Rohde 2.9% 3.6% 4.3% 4.4% 6.0% 6.4% 6.9% 8.2% 7.0% 10.9% 9.5% 11.7% 10.1% 6.6% 1.5%
Fred Strammer 10.9% 11.8% 13.3% 11.5% 9.7% 10.9% 7.2% 7.5% 5.2% 4.9% 3.7% 2.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Kelly Cooke 1.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.6% 1.7% 2.3% 2.9% 3.8% 3.5% 4.2% 6.8% 10.1% 15.2% 28.1% 15.9%
Brendan Hannon 2.1% 2.1% 2.6% 2.2% 3.3% 4.4% 5.8% 4.4% 5.1% 8.2% 10.2% 12.7% 15.8% 17.4% 3.7%
Andrew Sommer 6.6% 6.4% 6.5% 7.7% 8.1% 7.3% 7.1% 10.6% 10.9% 8.7% 7.0% 6.1% 4.4% 2.3% 0.3%
Vincent Andrews 2.3% 2.2% 2.9% 4.1% 4.6% 5.0% 3.8% 5.2% 6.4% 7.1% 8.1% 13.9% 16.0% 14.9% 3.5%
Michael Weigand 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.8% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 2.4% 4.5% 11.6% 72.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.