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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.68+5.43vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.92+4.04vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.22+4.24vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.71+5.56vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05+4.03vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+1.50vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.38+1.02vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+1.62vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.73-3.05vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston2.38-2.84vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.57+0.78vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.44-0.74vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin1.20-1.67vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.41+0.61vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University1.12-3.08vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.07-3.64vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.01-4.75vs Predicted
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18Cornell University1.96-9.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.43Roger Williams University2.6810.3%1st Place
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6.04Yale University2.9211.7%1st Place
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7.24Tufts University2.227.6%1st Place
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9.56University of Pennsylvania1.715.0%1st Place
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9.03St. Mary's College of Maryland2.055.2%1st Place
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7.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.327.8%1st Place
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8.02Bowdoin College2.386.5%1st Place
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9.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.8%1st Place
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5.95Brown University2.7312.2%1st Place
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7.16College of Charleston2.389.2%1st Place
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11.78Old Dominion University1.572.2%1st Place
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11.26George Washington University1.442.6%1st Place
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11.33University of Wisconsin1.202.8%1st Place
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14.61SUNY Maritime College0.410.9%1st Place
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11.92North Carolina State University1.122.6%1st Place
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12.36Northeastern University1.072.6%1st Place
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12.25Boston University1.011.8%1st Place
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8.96Cornell University1.964.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 10.3% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Benjamin Honig | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Charlie Anderson | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Guthrie Braun | 12.2% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 8.6% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% |
| Ben Hosford | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 37.1% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 9.6% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 12.0% |
| Nathan Selian | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 10.2% |
| Winborne Majette | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.