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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.68+5.52vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.92+4.23vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05+5.97vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+5.46vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.22+2.26vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+1.49vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.73-1.04vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.38-0.92vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.12+2.88vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.07+2.41vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.01+1.22vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.57-0.34vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.44-1.73vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.20-2.73vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.38-6.94vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.41-1.35vs Predicted
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17Cornell University1.96-7.93vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.71-8.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.52Roger Williams University2.6810.6%1st Place
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6.23Yale University2.9210.2%1st Place
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8.97St. Mary's College of Maryland2.054.6%1st Place
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9.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.9%1st Place
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7.26Tufts University2.228.2%1st Place
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7.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.327.8%1st Place
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5.96Brown University2.7312.4%1st Place
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7.08College of Charleston2.388.5%1st Place
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11.88North Carolina State University1.122.6%1st Place
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12.41Northeastern University1.071.9%1st Place
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12.22Boston University1.011.9%1st Place
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11.66Old Dominion University1.572.5%1st Place
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11.27George Washington University1.442.9%1st Place
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11.27University of Wisconsin1.202.8%1st Place
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8.06Bowdoin College2.386.7%1st Place
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14.65SUNY Maritime College0.411.2%1st Place
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9.07Cornell University1.965.5%1st Place
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9.52University of Pennsylvania1.714.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Charlie Anderson | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.5% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Guthrie Braun | 12.4% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 12.7% |
| Nathan Selian | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 10.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 6.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 35.6% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.