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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.38+6.87vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.85+3.38vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.68+3.28vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.86+5.44vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05+3.76vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+1.25vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+2.20vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.22-0.99vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.38-2.08vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin1.20+1.05vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.44-0.06vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.71-2.73vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.07+0.09vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.96-5.16vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.41-0.57vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.12-4.11vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.26-5.87vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University1.07-5.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.87Bowdoin College2.386.0%1st Place
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5.38Yale University2.8513.5%1st Place
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6.28Roger Williams University2.6810.6%1st Place
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9.44Brown University1.865.1%1st Place
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8.76St. Mary's College of Maryland2.055.8%1st Place
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7.25U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.329.3%1st Place
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9.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.6%1st Place
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7.01Tufts University2.228.4%1st Place
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6.92College of Charleston2.388.6%1st Place
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11.05University of Wisconsin1.203.2%1st Place
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10.94George Washington University1.443.7%1st Place
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9.27University of Pennsylvania1.714.9%1st Place
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13.09Boston University1.071.9%1st Place
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8.84Cornell University1.966.2%1st Place
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14.43SUNY Maritime College0.411.1%1st Place
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11.89North Carolina State University1.122.1%1st Place
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11.13Old Dominion University1.263.0%1st Place
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12.25Northeastern University1.071.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.5% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.6% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Charlie Anderson | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 5.8% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 5.8% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Porter Bell | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 19.6% |
| Winborne Majette | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 33.7% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 8.5% |
| Blake Goodwin | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 11.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.