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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.68+5.25vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.22+5.01vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.86+6.54vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.38+3.07vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.38+2.64vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.85-0.88vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.57+4.56vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.71+1.31vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+0.21vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-2.71vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05-2.16vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.96-3.22vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.41+1.49vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.12-2.35vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin1.20-3.91vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.07-2.75vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.44-6.28vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University1.07-5.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.25Roger Williams University2.6811.1%1st Place
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7.01Tufts University2.228.9%1st Place
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9.54Brown University1.864.0%1st Place
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7.07College of Charleston2.389.8%1st Place
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7.64Bowdoin College2.387.2%1st Place
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5.12Yale University2.8514.3%1st Place
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11.56Old Dominion University1.572.1%1st Place
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9.31University of Pennsylvania1.714.7%1st Place
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9.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.2%1st Place
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7.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.327.9%1st Place
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8.84St. Mary's College of Maryland2.055.2%1st Place
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8.78Cornell University1.965.5%1st Place
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14.49SUNY Maritime College0.411.2%1st Place
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11.65North Carolina State University1.122.6%1st Place
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11.09University of Wisconsin1.203.3%1st Place
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13.25Boston University1.072.1%1st Place
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10.72George Washington University1.443.6%1st Place
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12.18Northeastern University1.072.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 11.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Stephan Baker | 14.3% | 14.0% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.8% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Charlie Anderson | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 35.4% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 7.8% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 5.0% |
| Porter Bell | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 15.8% | 18.1% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 4.7% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 11.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.