← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University2.85+4.27vs Predicted
-
2Tufts University2.22+5.23vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05+6.11vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania2.16+4.02vs Predicted
-
5SUNY Maritime College0.41+9.59vs Predicted
-
6College of Charleston2.38+1.00vs Predicted
-
7Roger Williams University2.68-0.52vs Predicted
-
8Bowdoin College2.38+0.10vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+0.44vs Predicted
-
10George Washington University1.27+0.93vs Predicted
-
11Old Dominion University1.57+0.82vs Predicted
-
12University of Wisconsin1.20-0.94vs Predicted
-
13Boston University1.07+0.27vs Predicted
-
14North Carolina State University1.12-2.19vs Predicted
-
15Northeastern University1.22-3.94vs Predicted
-
16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-8.74vs Predicted
-
17Brown University1.86-7.59vs Predicted
-
18Cornell University1.96-8.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.27Yale University2.8513.6%1st Place
-
7.23Tufts University2.228.8%1st Place
-
9.11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.055.1%1st Place
-
8.02University of Pennsylvania2.166.3%1st Place
-
14.59SUNY Maritime College0.412.2%1st Place
-
7.0College of Charleston2.388.8%1st Place
-
6.48Roger Williams University2.689.6%1st Place
-
8.1Bowdoin College2.386.8%1st Place
-
9.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.5%1st Place
-
10.93George Washington University1.273.5%1st Place
-
11.82Old Dominion University1.572.4%1st Place
-
11.06University of Wisconsin1.203.0%1st Place
-
13.27Boston University1.071.9%1st Place
-
11.81North Carolina State University1.122.8%1st Place
-
11.06Northeastern University1.223.8%1st Place
-
7.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.328.7%1st Place
-
9.41Brown University1.864.3%1st Place
-
9.15Cornell University1.964.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 13.6% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Charlie Anderson | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Jackson McAliley | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 15.6% | 36.2% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.8% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 5.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.2% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 5.3% |
| Porter Bell | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 13.8% | 20.5% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 8.7% |
| Eva Ermlich | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Winborne Majette | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.