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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.03+3.42vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.15+5.34vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.51+3.09vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.61+5.45vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.53+0.95vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.29+1.12vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.00+0.96vs Predicted
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8Maine Maritime Academy0.01+6.25vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.50-2.67vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-0.59vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University0.62+1.93vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University0.95-0.11vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.67-3.67vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.08-6.15vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.18-3.96vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.61-6.52vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College0.86-4.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.42Harvard University3.030.2%1st Place
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7.34Roger Williams University2.150.1%1st Place
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6.09Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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9.45Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.610.0%1st Place
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5.95Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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7.12Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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7.96Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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14.25Maine Maritime Academy0.010.0%1st Place
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6.33Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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9.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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12.93Salve Regina University0.620.0%1st Place
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11.89Roger Williams University0.950.0%1st Place
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9.33Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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7.85Tufts University2.080.1%1st Place
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11.04Northeastern University1.180.0%1st Place
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9.48Tufts University1.610.0%1st Place
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12.17Dartmouth College0.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Callahan | 18.1% | 15.2% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Emily Scherer | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| Michael Kirkman | 10.9% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Griffen Horne | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 16.7% | 41.0% |
| James Paul | 8.7% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Emil Tullberg | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 17.0% | 21.6% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 14.7% | 10.4% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Bryan Trammell | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Liam Lawless | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 5.4% |
| Adam Larzelere | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| Griffin Lapham | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 16.0% | 11.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.