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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.03+3.42vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.61+7.29vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.50+3.20vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.08+3.69vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.51+1.06vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University0.95+6.04vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59+2.46vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.18+2.82vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.29-1.92vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.00-2.20vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University0.62+1.90vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.53-5.85vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College0.86-0.79vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.15-6.42vs Predicted
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15Yale University1.67-5.74vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy0.01-1.46vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.61-7.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.42Harvard University3.030.2%1st Place
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9.29Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.610.0%1st Place
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6.2Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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7.69Tufts University2.080.1%1st Place
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6.06Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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12.04Roger Williams University0.950.0%1st Place
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9.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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10.82Northeastern University1.180.0%1st Place
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7.08Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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7.8Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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12.9Salve Regina University0.620.0%1st Place
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6.15Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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12.21Dartmouth College0.860.0%1st Place
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7.58Roger Williams University2.150.1%1st Place
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9.26Yale University1.670.1%1st Place
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14.54Maine Maritime Academy0.010.0%1st Place
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9.51Tufts University1.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Callahan | 18.6% | 15.1% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Scherer | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| James Paul | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Bryan Trammell | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 9.8% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 1.9% |
| Liam Lawless | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 6.1% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Emil Tullberg | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 18.0% | 20.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 9.0% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Griffin Lapham | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 15.5% | 11.8% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% |
| Griffen Horne | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 10.9% | 17.4% | 41.4% |
| Adam Larzelere | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.