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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.39+6.44vs Predicted
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2Boston College1.97+7.53vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.20+4.85vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.45+3.16vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.35+2.41vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.15-1.20vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University1.55+3.30vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii2.41-0.92vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.28-1.31vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.73-1.41vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.68+2.85vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.50-0.40vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.42-2.59vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-3.76vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.67-4.48vs Predicted
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16University of Miami1.93-5.26vs Predicted
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17University of Southern California0.90-4.76vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida1.02-4.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.44Dartmouth College2.397.6%1st Place
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9.53Boston College1.974.1%1st Place
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7.85Georgetown University2.207.5%1st Place
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7.16Harvard University2.458.8%1st Place
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7.41Tulane University2.358.1%1st Place
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4.8Stanford University3.1515.6%1st Place
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10.3Jacksonville University1.553.9%1st Place
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7.08University of Hawaii2.418.4%1st Place
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7.69U. S. Naval Academy2.286.9%1st Place
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8.59Webb Institute1.736.3%1st Place
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13.85Northwestern University0.681.8%1st Place
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11.6Fordham University1.503.0%1st Place
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10.41University of Rhode Island1.423.6%1st Place
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10.24Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.933.6%1st Place
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10.52University of California at Santa Barbara1.673.7%1st Place
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10.74University of Miami1.933.5%1st Place
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12.24University of Southern California0.902.0%1st Place
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13.57University of South Florida1.021.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Satterberg | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Peter Joslin | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Diego Escobar | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Robby Meek | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 15.6% | 15.0% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew King | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.8% |
| Erik Anderson | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Jack Welburn | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 28.1% |
| Connor Bennett | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 7.8% |
| Tyler Nash | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.0% |
| Maks Groom | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.6% |
| Henry Boeger | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 12.6% |
| Jordan Byrd | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 16.0% | 23.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.