← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Roger Williams University2.15+6.12vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University3.03+2.33vs Predicted
-
3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.61+6.28vs Predicted
-
4Dartmouth College2.50+2.07vs Predicted
-
5Boston College2.53+0.82vs Predicted
-
6Yale University1.67+3.18vs Predicted
-
7Tufts University2.08+0.56vs Predicted
-
8Brown University2.29-1.35vs Predicted
-
9Northeastern University1.37+1.35vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University0.95+1.67vs Predicted
-
11Salve Regina University0.62+1.78vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-2.69vs Predicted
-
13Fordham University2.51-6.86vs Predicted
-
14Tufts University1.61-4.67vs Predicted
-
15Northeastern University1.18-4.13vs Predicted
-
16Maine Maritime Academy0.01-1.48vs Predicted
-
17Dartmouth College0.86-4.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.12Roger Williams University2.150.1%1st Place
-
4.33Harvard University3.030.2%1st Place
-
9.28Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.610.0%1st Place
-
6.07Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
-
5.82Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
-
9.18Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
-
7.56Tufts University2.080.1%1st Place
-
6.65Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
-
10.35Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
-
11.67Roger Williams University0.950.0%1st Place
-
12.78Salve Regina University0.620.0%1st Place
-
9.31U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
-
6.14Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
-
9.33Tufts University1.610.0%1st Place
-
10.87Northeastern University1.180.0%1st Place
-
14.52Maine Maritime Academy0.010.0%1st Place
-
12.02Dartmouth College0.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 18.3% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Scherer | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| James Paul | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 11.1% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Bryan Trammell | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 3.9% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 8.6% |
| Emil Tullberg | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 17.4% | 19.3% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Adam Larzelere | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 1.4% |
| Liam Lawless | 2.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 5.5% |
| Griffen Horne | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 16.5% | 42.1% |
| Griffin Lapham | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 11.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.