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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.03+3.45vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.15+5.40vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.53+3.10vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.29+2.99vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.51+1.00vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.50+0.31vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.08+0.66vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.61+1.21vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59+0.67vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University0.62+2.89vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.18+0.10vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.67-2.87vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University0.95-1.10vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.61-4.48vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.00-7.07vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy0.01-1.41vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College0.86-4.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.45Harvard University3.030.2%1st Place
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7.4Roger Williams University2.150.1%1st Place
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6.1Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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6.99Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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6.0Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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6.31Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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7.66Tufts University2.080.1%1st Place
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9.21Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.610.1%1st Place
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9.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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12.89Salve Regina University0.620.0%1st Place
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11.1Northeastern University1.180.0%1st Place
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9.13Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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11.9Roger Williams University0.950.0%1st Place
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9.52Tufts University1.610.0%1st Place
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7.93Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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14.59Maine Maritime Academy0.010.0%1st Place
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12.14Dartmouth College0.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Callahan | 17.7% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Michael Kirkman | 9.0% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Paul | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Bryan Trammell | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Emily Scherer | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Emil Tullberg | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 17.5% | 17.4% |
| Liam Lawless | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 6.2% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 10.3% |
| Adam Larzelere | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Griffen Horne | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 15.9% | 43.4% |
| Griffin Lapham | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 13.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.