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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+8.41vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.73+4.90vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+5.58vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.19vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.18+0.10vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+3.63vs Predicted
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7Florida State University1.69+3.39vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.46vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.28-0.67vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.59+3.43vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.68-3.75vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.00+1.59vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.73-3.76vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.38-5.54vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-5.04vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College1.17-4.06vs Predicted
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170.68-2.84vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.82-9.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.41University of Pennsylvania1.775.4%1st Place
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6.9Brown University2.739.4%1st Place
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8.58University of Rhode Island2.785.9%1st Place
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7.19U. S. Naval Academy2.607.3%1st Place
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5.1Harvard University3.1814.4%1st Place
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9.63Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.9%1st Place
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10.39Florida State University1.694.0%1st Place
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8.46St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.3%1st Place
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8.33Tulane University2.286.2%1st Place
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13.43Northeastern University1.591.6%1st Place
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7.25Roger Williams University2.689.2%1st Place
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13.59Connecticut College1.001.7%1st Place
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9.24Webb Institute1.734.5%1st Place
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8.46Cornell University2.385.6%1st Place
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9.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.5%1st Place
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11.94Eckerd College1.172.8%1st Place
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14.160.681.4%1st Place
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8.99George Washington University1.825.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.4% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Peter Foley | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 3.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 17.0% | 22.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| William Hurd | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 21.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Bridget Green | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 10.0% |
| Jack Homa | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 15.5% | 28.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.