Race 5C

oberg

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Mason Stang 18.4% 16.6% 13.3% 11.5% 9.2% 8.8% 6.1% 5.1% 4.6% 2.7% 1.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Drew Mastovsky 13.9% 15.0% 11.5% 10.9% 11.5% 7.9% 9.4% 5.7% 5.4% 3.6% 3.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Taylor Eastman 10.4% 7.9% 11.4% 9.0% 9.3% 10.0% 8.3% 9.4% 6.7% 6.3% 5.5% 3.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Meredith Broadus 3.0% 3.1% 3.8% 4.4% 5.2% 5.8% 4.8% 6.5% 8.0% 8.5% 10.0% 10.3% 11.1% 10.7% 4.8%
Alex Adams 7.4% 8.3% 6.9% 6.9% 7.6% 7.8% 9.3% 8.6% 9.5% 9.1% 6.6% 5.5% 4.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Shea Smith 7.2% 8.2% 8.4% 7.3% 10.1% 10.7% 8.5% 9.0% 8.1% 8.0% 4.8% 5.6% 2.6% 1.2% 0.3%
Ashley Arruda 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% 3.6% 2.7% 2.8% 4.0% 4.9% 6.0% 8.9% 8.7% 11.0% 15.6% 14.2% 9.0%
Nick Budington 10.0% 9.7% 10.9% 9.6% 8.7% 10.1% 8.3% 8.6% 6.8% 6.0% 5.5% 3.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Sam Monaghan 5.9% 6.2% 7.2% 8.3% 8.6% 7.4% 9.9% 9.0% 8.2% 8.8% 7.4% 6.8% 3.5% 2.1% 0.7%
Katherine McGagh 2.3% 2.2% 2.8% 3.0% 3.5% 4.6% 4.2% 5.9% 7.4% 7.0% 8.4% 12.4% 12.9% 13.4% 10.0%
Luke Slosar 1.0% 1.5% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 2.0% 1.6% 3.1% 3.4% 2.9% 5.8% 7.6% 9.8% 16.2% 41.6%
Matthew Elliott 8.8% 8.5% 9.5% 11.2% 9.2% 8.7% 8.6% 8.6% 7.8% 6.8% 5.2% 4.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0%
Matthew Cabot 0.9% 2.1% 1.5% 2.7% 3.0% 1.7% 3.4% 3.6% 4.6% 5.3% 8.1% 9.9% 13.3% 19.5% 20.4%
Will Donovan 5.5% 5.1% 6.5% 7.8% 6.6% 7.7% 8.9% 7.2% 7.6% 10.1% 9.3% 7.4% 5.2% 4.0% 1.1%
Lochlann Ludwig 2.3% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.5% 4.0% 4.7% 4.8% 5.9% 6.0% 10.0% 10.0% 14.1% 15.3% 11.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.