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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+12.32vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+6.97vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+5.64vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.99+5.17vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.76+5.21vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.54+0.93vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.82+3.09vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.00+1.19vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.93+0.57vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+1.29vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.47-3.57vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-0.94vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.94-3.62vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.10-5.50vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.42-7.61vs Predicted
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16Boston College3.07-6.96vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.83-6.82vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.65-7.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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13.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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8.97Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.64St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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9.17Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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10.21U. S. Naval Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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6.93Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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10.09Connecticut College2.820.0%1st Place
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9.19Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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9.57Georgetown University2.930.0%1st Place
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11.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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7.43Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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11.06Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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9.38Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.5College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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7.39Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.04Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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10.18University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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10.65Bowdoin College2.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Sawin | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 28.6% |
| Jack Egan | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% |
| Leo Boucher | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% |
| Gavin McJones | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Scott Mais | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.4% |
| Cameron Giblin | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.