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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.73+4.98vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.85+3.30vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+4.29vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05+5.04vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.38+1.96vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.38+1.90vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.16+0.81vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University1.09+3.09vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.96-0.27vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin1.20+1.11vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.22-3.97vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.27-0.99vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.43-2.37vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.07-0.63vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.57-3.37vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-6.69vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.07-4.80vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.41-3.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.98Brown University2.7310.9%1st Place
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5.3Yale University2.8513.8%1st Place
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7.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.328.8%1st Place
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9.04St. Mary's College of Maryland2.056.2%1st Place
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6.96College of Charleston2.388.0%1st Place
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7.9Bowdoin College2.387.4%1st Place
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7.81University of Pennsylvania2.167.2%1st Place
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11.09North Carolina State University1.093.1%1st Place
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8.73Cornell University1.965.0%1st Place
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11.11University of Wisconsin1.202.4%1st Place
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7.03Tufts University2.228.6%1st Place
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11.01George Washington University1.272.8%1st Place
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10.63Roger Williams University1.433.4%1st Place
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13.37Boston University1.071.6%1st Place
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11.63Old Dominion University1.573.3%1st Place
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9.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.2%1st Place
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12.2Northeastern University1.072.3%1st Place
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14.61SUNY Maritime College0.411.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.8% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Charlie Anderson | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Jackson McAliley | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.2% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 5.7% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% |
| Jed Lory | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| Porter Bell | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 15.2% | 19.3% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 10.4% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 33.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.