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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+8.05vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+8.05vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.23+5.03vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.64+2.12vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.81+4.55vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.40+1.13vs Predicted
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72.64+3.42vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.75+1.82vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.91+0.10vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.77vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.22-2.98vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.45-0.42vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.10-4.74vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.70-4.23vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston2.35-3.45vs Predicted
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16Stanford University3.07-7.46vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.35-5.25vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-4.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.05U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.05U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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8.03Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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6.12Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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9.55Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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7.13Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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10.422.640.0%1st Place
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9.82Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
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9.1Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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9.23St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.02Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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11.58Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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8.26Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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9.77Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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11.55College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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8.54Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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11.75University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
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13.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% |
| Colman Schofield | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.7% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Dana Haig | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% |
| Carmen Cowles | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.4% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.7% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| CJ Mckenna | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 12.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.9% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 11.2% |
| Wiley Rogers | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Javier Garcon | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 12.9% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 22.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.