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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.40+6.38vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+7.15vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.22+5.08vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.70+6.00vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.75+4.82vs Predicted
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62.64+4.39vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.10+1.39vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.23-0.17vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.81+0.60vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.64-3.60vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-1.01vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.35-0.04vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.00vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.91-5.10vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.99-6.22vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston2.35-4.29vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.45-5.67vs Predicted
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18Stanford University3.07-9.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.38Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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9.15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.08Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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10.0Tulane University2.700.0%1st Place
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9.82Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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10.392.640.1%1st Place
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8.39Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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7.83Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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9.6Bowdoin College2.810.0%1st Place
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6.4Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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9.99U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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11.96University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
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13.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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8.9Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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8.78U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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11.71College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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11.33Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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8.26Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Keefe | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 4.8% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% |
| Dana Haig | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 6.1% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% |
| Javier Garcon | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 13.4% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 23.0% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 13.4% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 9.8% |
| Wiley Rogers | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.