← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University3.22+7.09vs Predicted
-
2Bowdoin College2.81+7.91vs Predicted
-
3Harvard University3.64+3.38vs Predicted
-
4College of Charleston2.35+7.44vs Predicted
-
5Dartmouth College3.23+2.82vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.88vs Predicted
-
7Brown University3.40+0.11vs Predicted
-
8Yale University2.75+1.79vs Predicted
-
9Stanford University3.07-0.56vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University3.10-1.36vs Predicted
-
11Connecticut College2.45+0.33vs Predicted
-
12Boston College2.91-2.39vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-3.30vs Predicted
-
14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-5.38vs Predicted
-
15Tulane University2.70-4.96vs Predicted
-
162.64-5.54vs Predicted
-
17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-3.70vs Predicted
-
18University of Pennsylvania2.35-6.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.09Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
-
9.91Bowdoin College2.810.0%1st Place
-
6.38Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
-
11.44College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
-
7.82Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
-
8.88U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
7.11Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
-
9.79Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
-
8.44Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
-
8.64Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
-
11.33Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
-
9.61Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
-
9.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
-
8.62St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
10.04Tulane University2.700.0%1st Place
-
10.462.640.0%1st Place
-
13.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
-
11.46University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.5% |
| Justin Callahan | 9.5% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 10.8% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.6% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 8.5% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Carmen Cowles | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% |
| Wiley Rogers | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| CJ Mckenna | 4.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.0% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| Dana Haig | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.5% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 26.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.