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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+9.77vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.45+5.42vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.75+2.66vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University1.55+6.62vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.15-0.10vs Predicted
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6University of Miami1.93+4.73vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+3.28vs Predicted
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8Boston College1.97+1.65vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.28-0.92vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.35-2.30vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.20-2.82vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.98-2.37vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.42-2.45vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida0.52+0.65vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii2.41-7.79vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.73-7.36vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University0.68-2.99vs Predicted
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18University of Southern California0.90-5.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.77University of California at Santa Barbara1.673.5%1st Place
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7.42Harvard University2.458.2%1st Place
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5.66Dartmouth College2.7511.2%1st Place
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10.62Jacksonville University1.552.9%1st Place
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4.9Stanford University3.1516.9%1st Place
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10.73University of Miami1.933.4%1st Place
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10.28Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.584.1%1st Place
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9.65Boston College1.973.9%1st Place
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8.08U. S. Naval Academy2.287.1%1st Place
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7.7Tulane University2.356.3%1st Place
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8.18Georgetown University2.206.5%1st Place
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9.63Fordham University1.984.9%1st Place
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10.55University of Rhode Island1.423.6%1st Place
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14.65University of South Florida0.520.5%1st Place
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7.21University of Hawaii2.417.8%1st Place
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8.64Webb Institute1.735.2%1st Place
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14.01Northwestern University0.681.8%1st Place
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12.33University of Southern California0.902.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Boeger | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.1% |
| Robby Meek | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 11.2% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Matthew King | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 16.9% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 4.7% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.0% |
| Peter Joslin | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Jack Welburn | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Diego Escobar | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 4.4% |
| Brilan Christopher | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 17.8% | 33.2% |
| Erik Anderson | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 16.2% | 26.3% |
| Morgana Manti | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 11.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.