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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+7.98vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.40+5.23vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+7.06vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.91+5.07vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.64+1.09vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.45+5.12vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.10+1.32vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.75+1.80vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.22-1.26vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.81-0.14vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-2.05vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.23-3.87vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.70-3.12vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.07-5.86vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston2.35-3.50vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.09-3.35vs Predicted
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172.64-6.53vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-5.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.98U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.23Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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10.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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9.07Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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6.09Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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11.12Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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8.32Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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9.8Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
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7.74Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.86Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.95St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.13Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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9.88Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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8.14Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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11.5College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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12.65University of Pennsylvania2.090.0%1st Place
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10.472.640.0%1st Place
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13.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Colman Schofield | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 3.4% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.4% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 10.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Carmen Cowles | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 3.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% |
| Wiley Rogers | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 11.3% |
| Samuel Gavula | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 18.0% |
| Dana Haig | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 20.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.