← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Dartmouth College3.23+7.01vs Predicted
-
2Brown University3.40+5.26vs Predicted
-
3Yale University2.75+7.13vs Predicted
-
4Tulane University2.70+5.85vs Predicted
-
5Harvard University3.64+1.11vs Predicted
-
6University of Pennsylvania2.03+6.86vs Predicted
-
7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.77vs Predicted
-
8Connecticut College2.45+3.06vs Predicted
-
9Stanford University3.07-0.65vs Predicted
-
102.64+0.57vs Predicted
-
11Roger Williams University3.10-2.54vs Predicted
-
12College of Charleston2.35-0.12vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Naval Academy2.99-4.38vs Predicted
-
14Boston College2.91-5.21vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-5.28vs Predicted
-
16Bowdoin College2.81-6.36vs Predicted
-
17Georgetown University3.22-9.04vs Predicted
-
18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-5.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.01Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
-
7.26Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
-
10.13Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
-
9.85Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
-
6.11Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
-
12.86University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
-
8.77St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
11.06Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
-
8.35Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
-
10.572.640.1%1st Place
-
8.46Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
-
11.88College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
-
8.62U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
8.79Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
-
9.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
-
9.64Bowdoin College2.810.0%1st Place
-
7.96Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
-
12.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 6.2% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 2.9% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.7% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 20.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.6% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.7% |
| Wiley Rogers | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| Dana Haig | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 13.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 3.6% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 20.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.