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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+8.80vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.22+5.86vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.64+3.20vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.75+5.61vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.66vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.76vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.23+0.72vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.35+3.31vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.07-0.70vs Predicted
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102.64+0.54vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+2.14vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.10-3.42vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.23-1.24vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.91-5.24vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.45-4.01vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.81-6.43vs Predicted
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17Brown University3.40-9.85vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.09-5.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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7.86Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.2Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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9.61Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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8.66St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.76U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.72Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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11.31College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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8.3Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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10.542.640.1%1st Place
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13.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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8.58Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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11.76Tulane University2.230.0%1st Place
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8.76Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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10.99Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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9.57Bowdoin College2.810.0%1st Place
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7.15Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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12.3University of Pennsylvania2.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 4.9% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 3.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Justin Callahan | 9.8% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% |
| Wiley Rogers | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% |
| Dana Haig | 5.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 23.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Asher Zittrer | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 13.0% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 8.8% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 10.4% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Gavula | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 15.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.