← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1College of Charleston2.35+10.70vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University3.64+4.28vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University3.22+5.06vs Predicted
-
4Brown University3.40+3.01vs Predicted
-
5Bowdoin College2.81+4.50vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+3.79vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.81vs Predicted
-
8Dartmouth College3.23-0.26vs Predicted
-
92.64+1.35vs Predicted
-
10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.82vs Predicted
-
11University of Pennsylvania2.09+1.70vs Predicted
-
12Roger Williams University3.10-3.29vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-0.06vs Predicted
-
14Tulane University2.70-4.32vs Predicted
-
15Yale University2.75-5.20vs Predicted
-
16Boston College2.91-6.80vs Predicted
-
17Stanford University3.07-8.41vs Predicted
-
18Connecticut College2.45-7.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
11.7College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
-
6.28Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
-
8.06Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
-
7.01Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
-
9.5Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
-
9.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
-
8.81U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
7.74Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
-
10.352.640.0%1st Place
-
9.18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
12.7University of Pennsylvania2.090.0%1st Place
-
8.71Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
-
12.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
-
9.68Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
-
9.8Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
-
9.2Boston College2.910.0%1st Place
-
8.59Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
-
10.95Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 12.7% |
| Justin Callahan | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 9.9% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.9% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 6.6% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Dana Haig | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% |
| Samuel Gavula | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 19.9% |
| Carlos de Castro | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 21.5% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.5% |
| Carmen Cowles | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.1% |
| Wiley Rogers | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| CJ Mckenna | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.