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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+5.41vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.40+5.24vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.23+4.95vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.35+7.37vs Predicted
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52.64+5.19vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.91+3.21vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.81+2.57vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.75+1.77vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.10-0.68vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.93vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.07-2.43vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.22-3.80vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-0.04vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-5.40vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.09-2.42vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.70-5.91vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-7.02vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College2.45-7.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.41Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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7.24Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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7.95Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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11.37College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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10.192.640.0%1st Place
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9.21Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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9.57Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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9.77Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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8.32Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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9.07U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.57Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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8.2Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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12.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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8.6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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12.58University of Pennsylvania2.090.0%1st Place
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10.09Tulane University2.700.0%1st Place
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9.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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10.94Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 10.8% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.7% |
| Dana Haig | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Wiley Rogers | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 23.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Samuel Gavula | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 14.0% | 17.7% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.