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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
5.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.23+6.91vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+6.91vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.07+5.45vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.70+5.76vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.75+4.62vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+7.03vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.03+5.63vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.91+0.94vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.81+0.36vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.50+0.99vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.99-2.19vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.64-5.67vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.22-5.45vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-4.71vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.40-8.14vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.45-4.97vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston2.35-5.50vs Predicted
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182.64-7.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.91Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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8.91St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.45Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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9.76Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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9.62Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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13.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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12.63University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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8.94Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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9.36Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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10.99Roger Williams University2.500.0%1st Place
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8.81U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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6.33Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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7.55Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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6.86Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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11.03Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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11.5College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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10.022.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% |
| Wiley Rogers | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 22.2% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 18.0% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.6% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.3% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 9.9% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.9% |
| Dana Haig | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.