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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.23+6.86vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+6.93vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+5.85vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.91+4.85vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.07+3.25vs Predicted
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62.64+4.20vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.03+5.71vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.81+1.36vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.64-3.10vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-0.09vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.70-0.98vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+1.25vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.75-3.49vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.40-7.32vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.50-4.26vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.45-4.98vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University3.22-9.19vs Predicted
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18College of Charleston2.35-6.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.86Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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8.93St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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8.85U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.85Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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8.25Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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10.22.640.0%1st Place
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12.71University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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9.36Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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5.9Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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9.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.02Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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13.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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9.51Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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6.68Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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10.74Roger Williams University2.500.0%1st Place
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11.02Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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7.81Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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11.16College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| Wiley Rogers | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Dana Haig | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 2.9% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 18.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.5% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 3.9% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 13.1% | 25.5% |
| Carmen Cowles | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 9.5% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Cameron Wood | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.