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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.62+6.79vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.90+8.72vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.91+7.72vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.90vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.50+3.01vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+1.52vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.93+3.36vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University2.01+1.93vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-0.35vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College2.46-1.53vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University0.94+3.04vs Predicted
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12Florida State University1.97-1.51vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.66-5.65vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.18-4.90vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.07-1.55vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.57-8.15vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.43-1.57vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island3.23-12.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.79Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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10.72George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.72Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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5.9SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.01Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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10.36Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.93North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.65University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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8.47Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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14.04Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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10.49Florida State University1.970.0%1st Place
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7.35University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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9.1Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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13.45University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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7.85Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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15.43University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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5.21University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Davis | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 2.5% |
| Benton Amthor | 11.0% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| Adam Larson | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 1.7% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Walter Henry | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Matthew King | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 19.5% | 22.9% |
| Joey Meagher | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 2.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 17.9% | 16.7% |
| Tyler Mowry | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 16.7% | 44.6% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 13.6% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.