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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.06+5.16vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.23+3.52vs Predicted
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3Boston University2.57+4.99vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.62+3.54vs Predicted
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5North Carolina State University2.01+4.95vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.46+2.22vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University0.94+6.96vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+0.60vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.93+1.41vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.07+3.78vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.91-0.43vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.18-2.30vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.90-2.70vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.66-6.79vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.50-6.99vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.43-0.58vs Predicted
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17Florida State University1.97-6.70vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-10.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.16SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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5.52University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.99Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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7.54Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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9.95North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.22Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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13.96Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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8.6University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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10.41Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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13.78University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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10.57Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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9.7Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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10.3George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.21University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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8.01Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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15.42University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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10.3Florida State University1.970.0%1st Place
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7.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benton Amthor | 10.4% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.9% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Mowry | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Trevor Davis | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Adam Larson | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 2.3% |
| Walter Henry | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Matthew King | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 13.7% | 19.8% | 21.2% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 12.6% | 18.5% | 19.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 2.9% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 2.6% |
| Atlee Kohl | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 16.2% | 43.5% |
| Joey Meagher | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 2.4% |
| Will Murray | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.